Just six points separates second place from sixth place at the top of the Serie A table going into Match Day 17.
They have only given up more than one goal once, which happened to be a 4-0 loss to Udinese. Defense has been Roma’s forte this season!
Roma has proven that they can take their strong defence on the road against top competition by visiting Inter and Juventus and only allowing one goal in each game!
When playing at home against teams of higher calibre, they also conceded exactly one goal to Napoli, Lazio, and Atalanta, with four of those five games ending with under 2.5 goals.
One win over Inter at 2-1 was the lone exception!
Roma hasn’t given up more than 1.0 xGA in any of those five games, demonstrating their ability to play solid defence against teams at the top of the standings.
Milan has also played well defensively, and they have allowed two goals four different times while only managing to keep four clean sheets.
The total has also been exceeded in each of the previous four meetings between these teams, but I think this trend will be reversed in such a crucial game for both teams. 1-1, which is priced as the lowest correct score at +600, should win this game. In a game where each side might be a little more cautious, I’m going to ride with the defensive statistics of both teams.
1×2 Betting Odds
The tradition of head-to-head clashes favors Stefano Pioli’s team in this derby, given that they have outplayed AS Roma in four of their last five clashes. The club from Rome wants revenge, so we can expect an exciting duel!
But the betting market tells a different story!
Playing at home, AC Milan are the favourites to win with market odds @ 1.95.
Roma, who have played extremely well under Jose Mourinho are the underdogs in this with odds standing @ 4.50.
The odds that this match ends in a stalemate stands @ 3.72.
Total goals over/under
The odds that the total number of goals scored will be over 2.5, stands @ 2.16.
While the odds that the total number of goals will be under 2.5, stands @ 1.85.
Both the teams have played exceptionally well when it comes to defence, and that fact has led the market to believe this will be a low scoring contest!